UK employers are continuing to kick major hiring and firing decisions into the long grass with latest data from the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey showing 42% of organisations plan no changes to their employee headcount for Q2 (April – June) 2025. An additional 11% don’t know if or how their staffing levels will change.
ManpowerGroup’s Employment Outlook Survey (MEOS) is released every three months to measure employers’ intentions during the next quarter. It is the most comprehensive, forward-looking employment survey of its kind and is used as a key economic indicator by both the Bank of England and UK Government.
Michael Stull, Managing Director, ManpowerGroup, said: “Of those employers who do expect a change in headcount, their planned hiring volume is down 27% on the quarter with plenty of businesses holding back on recruiting until they’ve taken full stock of next month’s cost increases. Because of this we’re anticipating the UK’s hiring recession will remain an issue until summer at the earliest.
He adds: “With less hiring taking place, many employees are understandably reluctant to consider changing roles. Given this, employers must prioritise workforce optimisation and internal mobility. Offering opportunities to up-skill and finding ways to keep teams motivated and energised will drive much-needed productivity during this period of stagnation.
“The Government’s vast policy changes announced in the Autumn budget will be coming into effect in Q2. This means the hiring recession we’ve been experiencing looks set to continue until the impact is fully realised by cautious business leaders.
“As widespread caution continues to stifle decision-making, employers will need to treat the workforce as they would in an economic recession; they must look at driving productivity within their workforce for the rest of the year. Those businesses which are able to work smarter in the next few months will be in a better position for when the wider economy does turn around.”
While the labour market remains stagnant, the Energy & Utilities sector is reporting the most movement, with only 27% of employers planning no change to their headcount in Q2. Followed by IT (35%) and Finance & Real Estate (37%).
Stull continues: “Looking forward, it’s great to see some glimmers of positivity in the UK’s Energy, Utilities and Real Estate sectors. These are where we hope to see growth, especially when the economy is flat, as it would signal investment is coming back into the country.”
Of those industries which are reporting planned changes to headcount's in the coming quarter, ManpowerGroup anticipates -27% in hiring volume for the whole of the UK, but there are some industries bucking that trend – Industrials & Materials, Real Estate and Transport and Logistics. These industries are forecasting net positive changes to hiring volume in the coming quarter.
With public sector recruitment up, there are questions about when investment into areas including the increase in national defence expenditure and plans to drive up housebuilding, will have a knock-on impact for businesses in the private sector.
Stull concludes: “For the time being, economic uncertainty and cost pressures remain a real issue for many employers as the negative sentiment, alongside flat consumer spending and growing insolvencies all adds to a sense there is only so much more they can do. It’s likely they will continue to hold tight until we’ve seen the full impact of next month’s tax rises.
“Therefore we urge those who can, to navigate the uncertainty and find new solutions to drive productivity and efficiencies. They will likely reap the rewards later in the year when it is hoped the market will stabilise and improve.”
